由 Zhao Zheng On April 2, 2025, the United States announced the new “Reciprocal Tariffs” policy, stipulating that all imported goods will be subject to a 10% base tariff (effective from April 5). Additionally, countries with significant trade deficits face extra tariffs: 34% for China, 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 25% for South Korea, and 46% for Vietnam. As a result, the total tariff rate on Chinese display products exported to the U.S. could reach as high as 54% (including the previous 20% tariff). While certain categories like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are exempt, key components of the display industry—such as panels and driver chips—are not included in the exemption list. Furthermore, the tariff increase on automobiles and parts to 25% may indirectly raise the costs of automotive display modules.
Impact on the Global Display Market
The “Reciprocal Tariffs” policy will trigger shifts in the global supply chain and competitive landscape. To circumvent tariffs, Chinese companies may hasten the relocation of production capacity to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, or Mexico. Japanese and Korean firms might seize some market share in the short term but will also face tariff pressures of 25% or 24%, which they could mitigate through localized production. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian nations are enhancing their display industry capabilities, though they remain dependent on China’s supply chain.
Regarding price and demand fluctuations, analyses suggest that rising transportation costs for components will inflate global supply chain expenses, potentially driving panel prices up by 5%-10%. Concurrently, end-user prices for consumer goods like televisions and projectors in the U.S. market could surge by 20%-30%, suppressing consumer demand.
Impact on China’s Display Market
The new policy is anticipated to exert pressure on both exports and domestic demand. Currently, China’s display product exports to the U.S. account for approximately 15%-20% of its total, but high tariffs could slash this figure to below 10%. In response, Chinese firms will need to explore markets in Europe and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, redirecting exports to the domestic market may intensify competition at home. Data indicates that LED display screen prices have already dropped by 10%-15% compared to 2024, with further declines expected.
China may retaliate by imposing tariffs on U.S. goods, raising the cost of imported components and, consequently, finished products. Studies estimate that television production costs could rise by 15%-20%. This pressure is likely to accelerate the domestic production of critical components like polarizers and driver chips, strengthening China’s R&D and manufacturing ecosystem. Additionally, China will leverage the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to bolster regional trade ties, with display-related companies expediting factory construction in Vietnam and elsewhere while enhancing competitiveness through premium offerings and brand development.
Impact on Segmented Markets
Home Television Sector: China accounts for 30% of global television exports to the U.S. High tariffs could erode this market share, prompting companies to rely on factories in Vietnam and other regions to sustain exports. Leading domestic firms may engage in price wars to consolidate industry dominance.
Commercial Displays and Projectors: U.S. companies might delay purchases and pivot to local brands, pushing Chinese firms to deepen their presence in Europe and the Middle East. High-end products, being less affected, may encourage companies to ramp up R&D investment.
LED Displays and Engineering Solutions: Orders for large-scale U.S. projects could shift to European, American, Japanese, or Korean brands, necessitating Chinese companies to forge local partnerships to retain market footing. Meanwhile, cost pressures may hasten the commercialization of emerging technologies like Micro LED.
Overall Outlook
In the short term, the “Reciprocal Tariffs” policy will elevate costs and dampen demand, compelling Chinese companies to address these challenges through capacity relocation, technological advancements, and market diversification. The industry’s competitive focus will shift from cost to technology and branding, with firms boasting global reach and technical prowess emerging as leaders.